the blog of DC Drinking Liberally
I’m no gambler, but it can be entertaining to look at prices on betting sites that cover things other than sports. Currently Intrade has the following most recent trade prices for selected US legal events:
I. Lewis Libby to be indicted ON or BEFORE 31st DEC 05 | 75.6 | |
Karl Rove to be indicted ON or BEFORE 31st DEC 05 | 50.2 | |
Harriet Miers to be Confirmed to the Supreme Court by the US Senate | 35.0 | |
Tom DeLay to be found guilty of conspiracy to violate political fund raising laws | 15.5 | |
Tom DeLay to be found guilty of conspiring to launder money & money laundering | 22.0 |
The prices, which can range from 0 to 100, roughly correspond to the percentage likelihood the market is assigning to the events. The DeLay numbers are disappointing, but then ultimately they’re all meaningless since the people buying and selling presumably don’t have any inside information.
Judging by the current rumblings, with luck we may have some indictments to toast this week. Remember, if you want to be in the loop for Thursday Drinking Liberally, you need to subscribe to the new announcement list.
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